Apolluz Discovery team
 

This Document has been put together to help explain the possibility of comet ELENIN being ‘pushed’ into a collision path with earth.

Luke

Volume of ELENIN =
=

Volume

= 3.351032164 x kg³

Density of:

Pure Iron = 10 gm/
Silicate Rock = 3.0 gm/
Ice = 1.0 gm/
Now assuming that each of these materials make up for 1/3 of ELENIN

Mass

=

m

= +

m

= 111.7010721 +33.51032164 +11.17010721

mass of ELENIN

= 156.381501 kg

Now in order to estimate the Comets standalone Force (rotation), the gravity influence on its surface must be estimated

Gravity of ELENIN Gravitational Constant = 6.6742 x
=
= x
= 2.609303535 m/

Next the turning force (rotation) must be estimated, this will be done using moments about a point.

Turning Force

assuming the rotation is clockwise (CW)

= CW = ACW
No force ACW = 0

CW

=

CW

= x 2.609303535 m/

CW

= 408046.8034 N or 408.0468034 kN
Intial Kinetic Forcenow it has been estimated that the comet is moving in excess of 44,000,000 – 64,000,000 m / s

F

= ma
== x 44,000,000 m/s6.880786044 x or 6.880786044 EN

Average IKF

===== x 64,000,000 m/s10.00841606 x or 10.00841606 EN8.444601052 x

With this information it is possible to work out, using trigonometry and triangles of forces, the force needed to push ELENIN 3 degrees in any direction.

Force needed to move ELENIN into a collision course

8.444601052 Exa Newtons

3

87

Force Needed

Resultant

ELE Range

Using Trigonometry it is possible to estimate how much of a force would be required to move the asteroid into the Resultant path.
=
=

A tan 87

A

Force Needed

=== 8.444601052 x442.5627881 PNThis shows that in order for ELENIN to be pushed into a collision course with earth a point for of 442.5627881 Peta Newtons would have to be applied at an angle somewhere in the range (in red) shown on the diagram.

With the Size of the Force required it is now possible to estimate the dimensions and mass of an object that could send ELENIN astray. The larger theorised velocity will be used for equations; this must be done to cancel out the velocity factor in the mass. (The theorised object will be referred to as SOD (seals our doom)

F

=
= m

m

=

mass of SOD

= 0.6915043564 x kg
Size of object compared to ELENIN

Radius of SOD

==

Radius

= 1181.867446 m

Diameter

= 2363.734892 m

So in conclusion, if an object roughly 59% of the mass of Comet ELENIN, grazed or hit ELENIN in the aforementioned ‘E.L.E. range’, it would most likely send the comet straight towards us.

Although this small bunch of calculations seems to help us interpret how close we are to being hit, it is actually of no real use unless we can figure out the pinball effects on the comet as it passes between planets and the asteroid belt.

For this I have composed a variables list that hopefully some people can give me some figures for so I can work this out:

-Planetary Pathway, (what planets is it set to pass? how close, what day etc) I already have the info to work out the influence each planet would have but lack the pathway to judge it from

-ELENIN composition, (what makes up this rock? Mostly ice and gas, or high levels of iron and rock?), with this I can work into electromagnetism as a factor.

-Direction and actual speed, right now I’m working with rough estimates and need some hard info to make a general conclusion

Also if anyone else has some variables they think need a mention please leave a message either through email or in the comments below

lukenxn@gmail.com

Please note that I am not trying to create a doomsday event, I’m merely applying my knowledge to give us a rough idea of what events would have to occur for this coming event to go sour.

Also I encourage others to rework my equations and tell me if I’ve done something wrong in any of them, debate is healthy and I fully encourage it.

Author: Luke

This Final Report has been put together with help and info

from Daveyo, Varakienen and Ron

Additional data.

One if it hits land (anyplace) and the other if it hits water (say the Pacific)

This is 1000 miles away from impact on Land and the type of asteroid is Rock. Should this thing be Iron!!!! which at the moment it supposingly is, we are talking about a total different story, and the damage increases 10 times more.

Transient Crater Diameter: 31.2 km ( = 19.4 miles )
Transient Crater Depth: 11 km ( = 6.85 miles )
Final Crater Diameter: 49 km ( = 30.5 miles )
Final Crater Depth: 955 meters ( = 3130 feet )
The crater formed is a complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 91.2 km3 = 21.9 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater, where its average thickness is 119 meters ( = 392 feet ).
The major seismic shaking will arrive approximately 5.37 minutes after impact.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 9.0
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 1610 km:

III. Felt quite noticeably by persons indoors, especially on upper floors of buildings. Many people do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing motor cars may rock slightly. Vibrations similar to the passing of a truck.

IV. Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rocked noticeably.

The ejecta will arrive approximately 11 minutes after the impact.

At your position there is a fine dusting of ejecta with occasional larger fragments
Average Ejecta Thickness: 2.02 mm ( = 0.796 tenths of an inch )
Mean Fragment Diameter: 206 microns ( = 8.11 thousandths of an inch )

The air blast will arrive approximately 1.36 hours after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 7940 Pa = 0.0794 bars = 1.13 psi
Max wind velocity: 18.1 m/s = 40.5 mph
Sound Intensity: 78 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
Damage Description: Glass windows will shatter.

This is 500 miles from impact point on land

Transient Crater Diameter: 31.2 km ( = 19.4 miles )
Transient Crater Depth: 11 km ( = 6.85 miles )
Final Crater Diameter: 49 km ( = 30.5 miles )
Final Crater Depth: 955 meters ( = 3130 feet )
The crater formed is a
complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 91.2 km3 = 21.9 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater, where its average thickness is 119 meters ( = 392 feet ).
The fireball is below the horizon. There is no direct thermal radiation.
The major seismic shaking will arrive approximately 2.68 minutes after impact.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 9.0
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 805 km:

III. Felt quite noticeably by persons indoors, especially on upper floors of buildings. Many people do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing motor cars may rock slightly. Vibrations similar to the passing of a truck.

IV. Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rocked noticeably.

The ejecta will arrive approximately 7.27 minutes after the impact.

At your position there is a fine dusting of ejecta with occasional larger fragments
Average Ejecta Thickness: 1.62 cm ( = 0.637 inches )
Mean Fragment Diameter: 1.29 mm ( = 0.509 tenths of an inch )

The air blast will arrive approximately 40.7 minutes after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 24100 Pa = 0.241 bars = 3.43 psi
Max wind velocity: 51.8 m/s = 116 mph
Sound Intensity: 88 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
Damage Description: Interior partitions of wood frame buildings will be blown down. Roof will be severely damaged. Glass windows will shatter. About 30 percent of trees blown down; remainder have some branches and leaves blown off.

Here is when it hits water 500 miles out from a coast at water depth of 20K feet which is avg in the Pacific.

The crater opened in the water has a diameter of 49.7 km ( = 30.9 miles ).
For the crater formed in the seafloor:
Transient Crater Diameter: 20 km ( = 12.5 miles )
Transient Crater Depth: 7.09 km ( = 4.4 miles )
Final Crater Diameter: 29.8 km ( = 18.5 miles )
Final Crater Depth: 822 meters ( = 2700 feet )
The crater formed is a
complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 13.8 km3 = 3.3 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater, where its average thickness is 43.6 meters (143 feet )

The fireball is below the horizon. There is no direct thermal radiation

The major seismic shaking will arrive approximately 2.68 minutes after impact.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 8.4
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 805 km:

III. Felt quite noticeably by persons indoors, especially on upper floors of buildings. Many people do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing motor cars may rock slightly. Vibrations similar to the passing of a truck.

IV. Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound.

Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rocked noticeably.

The ejecta will arrive approximately 7.27 minutes after the impact.
At your position there is a fine dusting of ejecta with occasional larger fragments
Average Ejecta Thickness: 2.77 mm ( = 1.09 tenths of an inch )
Mean Fragment Diameter: 772 microns ( 30.4 thousandths of an inch )
The air blast will arrive approximately 40.7 minutes after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 24100 Pa = 0.241 bars = 3.43 psi
Max wind velocity: 51.8 m/s = 116 mph
Sound Intensity: 88 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
Damage Description: Interior partitions of wood frame buildings will be blown down. Roof will be severely damaged. Glass windows will shatter. About 30 percent of trees blown down; remainder have some branches and leaves blown off.

Tsunami Wave:

The impact-generated tsunami wave arrives approximately 56.2 minutes after impact.

Tsunami wave amplitude is between: 107.0 meters ( = 353.0 feet) and 215.0 meters ( = 705.0 feet).

Then again it depends on the shoreline approaching any Island, and there will be more than 1 wave. At least minimum 3 major waves The impact wave, the rebound of the water filling up the impact point, and then the after effects wave which starts the secondary follow ups.

So with all this, you can expect just about everything will get wiped out should this Tsunami hit any Island. Example> Hawaii will undoubtly get wiped out. That wave will follow thru end to end on that Island, and this means every human and object and whatever is there will all be washed out to sea permanently. Survival is ZERO. Means to say all water is contaminated with ocean water, electricity is wiped out, most homes gone, and most buildings gone, and all planes gone, and no human around. The island will be underwater for a few days before it drains back out to sea, and of course the Volcano more likely will have a very severe reaction to the water itself possibly causing a huge volcanic eruption.

If such should hit New Zealand> same thing and Indonesia same deal as well as all of the Islands in the pacific. Taiwan will get wiped out. Japan maybe survive on the west coast side but Tokyo, Haneda, Kansai and others like Hiroshima, Nagasaki and the rest on the east coast is all bye bye. The same applies to China, Hong Kong will definitely be wiped out as well as Shanghai and a few others along the Chinese coast. Bejing will most likely escape but they might get some remnants of the wave itself depending on its elevation in relation to the shore.

Both Vietnama will be wiped out.. Probably half of Cambodia will get wiped out too. Laos is iffy because its a very hilly country. Thailand, Bangkok will be soaked up quite good since its almost sea level and only 12 feet above it.

Nakhon Sawan is only 45 feet above sea level, whereas Chaing Mai is only 90 feet above sea level. That is right. >28 feet separates me from Bangkok in relation to sea level and this is 289 Kilometers!!!. Talk about a close call here. What this means is the rise is extremely very little slope spread over the distance. From Nakon Sawan to Chaing Mai its another 430 kilometers and it only rises another 45 feet!

So actually it will be better this comet to hit land instead of water. This is my opinion.

Now if this comet is Iron which is 75% probable, here is the results just for land and water at 500 miles away from impact point.

Transient Crater Diameter: 43.3 km ( = 26.9 miles )

Transient Crater Depth: 15.3 km ( = 9.5 miles )

Final Crater Diameter: 71 km ( = 44.1 miles )
Final Crater Depth: 1.07 km ( = 0.663 miles )
The crater formed is a
complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 244 km3 = 58.4 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater, where its average thickness is 166 meters ( 544 feet )

Time for maximum radiation: 3.98 seconds after impact
Visible fireball radius: 16.9 km ( = 10.5 miles )
The fireball appears 4.76 times larger than the sun
Thermal Exposure: 4.09 x 106 Joules/m2
Duration of Irradiation: 14.7 minutes
Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 4.65
Effects of Thermal Radiation: Much of the body suffers second degree burns
Deciduous trees ignite

The major seismic shaking will arrive approximately 2.68 minutes after impact.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 9.3
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 805 km

IV. Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rocked noticeably.

V. Felt by nearly everyone; many awakened. Some dishes, windows broken. Unstable objects overturned. Pendulum clocks may stop.

The ejecta will arrive approximately 7.27 minutes after the impact.

At your position there is a fine dusting of ejecta with occasional larger fragments
Average Ejecta Thickness: 5.99 cm ( = 2.36 inches )
Mean Fragment Diameter: 1.89 mm ( = 0.745 tenths of an inch
The air blast will arrive approximately 40.7 minutes after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 43700 Pa = 0.437 bars = 6.21 psi
Max wind velocity: 87.9 m/s = 197 mph
Sound Intensity: 93 dB (May cause ear pain)

Damage Description: Multistory wall-bearing buildings will collapse. Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse. Glass windows will shatter.
Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.

FOR WATER IMPACT

The crater opened in the water has a diameter of 69 km ( = 42.8 miles ).
For the crater formed in the seafloor

Transient Crater Diameter: 36.1 km ( = 22.4 miles )

Transient Crater Depth: 12.8 km ( = 7.92 miles )
Final Crater Diameter: 57.8 km ( = 35.9 miles )
Final Crater Depth: 1 km ( = 0.623 miles )
The crater formed is a
complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 120 km3 = 28.8 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater, where its average thickness is 117 meters (385 feet )

Time for maximum radiation: 3.98 seconds after impact

Visible fireball radius: 16.9 km ( = 10.5 miles )
The fireball appears 4.76 times larger than the sun
Thermal Exposure: 4.09 x 106 Joules/m2
Duration of Irradiation: 14.7 minutes
Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 4.65
Effects of Thermal Radiation: Much of the body suffers second degree burns. Deciduous trees ignite

The major seismic shaking will arrive approximately 2.68 minutes after impact.

Richter Scale Magnitude: 9.1
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 805 km:

IV. Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rocked noticeably.

V. Felt by nearly everyone; many awakened. Some dishes, windows broken. Unstable objects overturned. Pendulum clocks may stop.

The ejecta will arrive approximately 7.27 minutes after the impact.

At your position there is a fine dusting of ejecta with occasional larger fragments
Average Ejecta Thickness: 2.9 cm ( = 1.14 inches )
Mean Fragment Diameter: 1.53 mm ( = 0.603 tenths of an inch )
The air blast will arrive approximately 40.7 minutes after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 43700 Pa = 0.437 bars = 6.21 psi
Max wind velocity: 87.9 m/s = 197 mph
Sound Intensity: 93 dB (May cause ear pain)
Damage Description: Multistory wall-bearing buildings will collapse. Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse. Glass windows will shatter.

Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.

The impact-generated tsunami wave arrives approximately 55.6 minutes after impact

Tsunami wave amplitude is between: 207.0 meters ( = 678.0 feet) and 414.0 meters ( 1360.0 feet)

This means a quarter mile high wall of water.

Again, better to have land impact than water impact by all means. Most lives will be saved that way.

However keep in mind the thermal radiation will LAST FOR ALMOST A FULL 15 MINUTES. The heat alone will be enough to kill you, just 500 miles away from impact point.


The windstorm and the earthquake shock wave will hit less than 1 hour after impact.

I would guess most likely everybody will be informed of the pending impact area well enough in advance to take cover. At least minimum 3 hours before it hits.

Author: Daveyo

This video was uploaded to the “NASA Buzzroom” for discussion

Quote from NASA buzzroom ( March, 2011):

“these are my calculations, but I’ve revised the 0.24AU’s down to
0.0004617 AU’s on 21.42pm 16th Oct 2011, thats about 50,000 miles away from earth …

video source:


 


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